Forum:2014 Atlantic hurricane season/July
July Welcome to July in the Atlantic! For the first time in 10 years, we made it to the end of June with no tropical cyclone forming. But that is not to last. Right above my post, you can see that Invest 91L is bound to become a tropical cyclone very soon. Nevertheless, I predict a quieter July compared to 2011 or even 2013 - just 1''' tropical depression and '''1 tropical storm with an ACE of ~2.6 (give or take 2). AndrewTalk To Me 02:23, July 1, 2014 (UTC) : I predict 2 storms with 1 of them becoming a hurricane. The one that I predict will become a hurricane is the currently active TD One. The other storm I predict will form in mid-late July (around July 18-20) and be a moderate to strong TS. Steve820 04:45, July 1, 2014 (UTC) Recent GFS models have been showing a trend towards stronger easterly waves departing Africa at higher latitudes. With a slow and steady decrease of wind shear over the next 10 to 15 days, environmental conditions should become more favorable for development. AndrewTalk To Me 12:14, July 20, 2014 (UTC) 01L.ARTHUR Please see the individual archive on Arthur. AOI: Off Florida AOI: Off of Florida Just after Arthur dissipates, a new weak surface trough has emerged off of the coast of Florida producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, as the AOI moves northeastward at 15 mph over the next several days, upper-level winds should not support any development. For now, its chances of formation are at 10% for both the next two and five days. AndrewTalk To Me 21:35, July 6, 2014 (UTC) : Down to 0% (2 and 5 days). Yeah, what a fail this was, and what a waste of that time and energy making and writing that TWO and GTWO. Next!--Steve820 15:16, July 7, 2014 (UTC) ::The AOI is off the TWO. Hopefully, this quiet will last for a while. AndrewTalk To Me 21:17, July 7, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (July 9) AoI: Inland Africa Some models indicate low chances for formation of a tropical cyclone over the deep tropics in the Atlantic during July 9-15. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:09, July 7, 2014 (UTC) This could be interesting, but it might be a trashy storm. But we shall see what comes of this. BigO99 (talk) 01:27, July 9, 2014 (UTC) AoI: Tropical Wave (July 9) Emerged off of Africa, brought a layer of Saharan air with its axis. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 17:13, July 10, 2014 (UTC) :We have a really interesting pattern of tropical waves in the Atlantic. This is the lead wave of a quartet, currently located in the Caribbean. Moving westwards at 12 knots, it has brought a large surge of moisture with it to the Southeastern Caribbean. Interestingly, GFS is forecasting a circulation to pop up on Monday. However, given it is about to slam into 40 knots of wind shear, I doubt that is really going to happen. But it may have a chance in the Pacific. More information can be found in Jeff Master's blog post. AndrewTalk To Me 12:14, July 20, 2014 (UTC) ::I have a feeling this might be Hernan in the Pacific (or Genevieve if the other AOI in the Pacific doesn't develop). --Steve820 16:43, July 20, 2014 (UTC) :::Became TS Genevieve in the EPAC. AndrewTalk To Me 02:33, August 1, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Near SE Caribbean AOI: Near SE Caribbean Right behind the aformentioned AOI, we have another system about to enter the Caribbean. It is moving westwards at 15 knots. More information can be found above. AndrewTalk To Me 12:13, July 20, 2014 (UTC) :This moved out of Africa on July 15, also mentioned in EPac section. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 03:59, July 23, 2014 (UTC) :::Became Hurricane Hernan in the EPAC. AndrewTalk To Me 02:33, August 1, 2014 (UTC) 02L.NONAME AoI:Tropical Wave (July 17) Now this is the most interesting wave of the quartet. It is near 30W, and it has brought a huge moisture surge with it. More information can be found in the July 9 AOI section. AndrewTalk To Me 12:13, July 20, 2014 (UTC) : I predict we might see Bertha out of this in the long run. Who knows?--Steve820 16:40, July 20, 2014 (UTC) ::: This is the only one NHC has up on the TWO as of now, 10% for the next 2 and 5 days, but I doubt it will develop due to hostile shear in the Caribbean. This might have a chance in the western Caribbean or the EPac in the long run, but that's going to be a different story for a different day. Ryan1000 18:04, July 20, 2014 (UTC) ::This AOI is rather broad, and shower and thunderstorm activity is rather disorganized. Development may happen at a slow pace as it moves westwards at 15 to 20 mph over the Atlantic. Eventually, however, the AOI will slam into the wall of shear that is suffocating the July 9 tropical wave. For now, it has appeared on the NHC TWO with a 10% chance of formation for both the next two and five days. Steve, I am not expecting anything from this wave, but if it wants to become something in the Atlantic, it better hurry up! AndrewTalk To Me 18:06, July 20, 2014 (UTC) ::Shear is not a problem. The epic dry air is.Allanjeffs 20:11, July 20, 2014 (UTC) ::::There actually is some strong shear in parts of the Caribbean (like there usually is at this time of year), but SAL dry air has become increasingly common in stopping storms over the past several years in ATL, more common than shear even. Eh, either way, this won't develop in ATL. However, it could have a chance when it eventually reaches the EPac. Ryan1000 22:34, July 20, 2014 (UTC) ::::I was refering to the East and middle Attlantic that is govern by dry air, meanwhile the Caribbean is screaming with all that shear. Supposedly base on the blog that a collegue of Dr. Masters conditions are going to be more favorable in the last days of the month and early August.Allanjeffs 01:18, July 21, 2014 (UTC) 92L.INVEST And now it's invested. The latest model runs on this one actually take it north of entering the EPac, into Hispaniola and dying in the long run. At best, this'll be another Chantal '13, or Emily '11, or not develop at all...Ryan1000 14:02, July 21, 2014 (UTC) Up to 50% this invest might steal the name Bertha before dying.Allanjeffs 15:28, July 21, 2014 (UTC) : Oh god I hope not...last thing I want to see is another weakling storm that just steals a name off the list. This could be Chantal 2.0. Ryan1000 15:41, July 21, 2014 (UTC) ::Chantal 2.0 actually wouldn't be so bad. Remember that Chantal got up to 55 kts, so it wasn't far off from hurricane strength, and we've already had a Cat 2 hurricane this season (Arthur) whereas we got none last year. What I'm fearing is another Ana/Erika '09. For what it's worth, I'm relatively ok with the prospect of Bertha failing. Sure, it would suck to follow up Bertha's epic 2008 incarnation with a failure this year, but Bertha has already been a hurricane three times over, two of which were major hurricanes. The name Cristobal is what I'm worried about. That name has yet to be given to a hurricane since it replaced Cesar after the 1996 season, and I'd like to see it follow in Arthur's footsteps and accomplish hurricane strength for the first time this year. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 16:08, July 21, 2014 (UTC) :::I'd also like to see Cristobal become a hurricane for the first time. The name "Bertha" might have to be used for an real big fail this year. It also looks very small on satellite imagery. Please...don't...epically...fail...--Steve820 16:20, July 21, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two Might not even make it to tropical storm strength.--Isaac829 20:42, July 21, 2014 (UTC) :I hope it doesn't, simply because I don't want any name-stealers. If it does become named it'll only peak at 40-45 mph and it'll be a big epic fail! I also want the name "Bertha" to be saved for a stronger storm and not for weaklings/failings/disappointments such as this.--Steve820 21:15, July 21, 2014 (UTC) ::TBH I don't care if it peaks at 40 or 45mph. I want a tropical storm no matter if is an epic fail or not. The Atlantic is waking up and this year the name Bertha might fail but I don't really care.A storm is a storm. At least we got something to watch.Allanjeffs 21:35, July 21, 2014 (UTC) :::Sorry Allan, but I'd personally prefer an unnamed tropical depression over a name thief; we had enough of the latter last year (see Erin, Jerry, and Lorenzo, for example). :::If this thing becomes Bertha, it will be subject to something I like to call the Hangover Effect. The Hangover Effect happens when a name is given to an overachieving storm (a storm that either achieves major hurricane strength, causes significant impact on land, or both), and the next time that name is used (or, if the name is retired after the overachiever in question, the name's replacement), the storm underachieves by failing to reach hurricane strength and/or cause significant impact on land. Examples of the Hangover Effect include Franklin '05 following up Floyd '99; Dorian '13 following up Dean '07; Lee '05 following up Lenny '99; Alex '98 following up Andrew '92; Claudette '97 following up Claudette '91; and Bertha '02 following up Bertha '96. After becoming a major hurricane and making landfall in North Carolina in 1996, Bertha's 2002 incarnation failed to strengthen beyond 35 kts and caused only very light effects in Texas and Louisiana. After becoming the easternmost, longest-lived, and third strongest July Atlantic tropical cyclone in 2008, 2014's Bertha may fall flat on its face just as or even before it reaches the Windward Islands. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:22, July 21, 2014 (UTC) :::You might add Isis 2001 to Ingrid of 2007 :P but tbh I prefer this to be a fail but not stay as a depression but that is just me. Everyone has its own opinion,but btw its developing strong convection in its center it might be upgrade at 11pm or 5am, if does not start to loose its thunderstorm activity. Allanjeffs 23:43, July 21, 2014 (UTC) ::::The first advisory is out from the NHC. Convection remains somewhat shallow, and as a matter of fact, the 1210Z ASCAT pass was not conclusive in determining in a closed circulation. Since the NHC only assumes a closed circulation is present, I have the feeling Tropical Depression Two is not fully tropical. Nevertheless, it is in a marginal environment for development, with sufficient SST's and some dry air. Most models forecast dissipation within 48 to 72 hours, but from the hostility the depression is enduring, I won't be surprised if it dies sooner. The system is being steered westwards by the subtropical ridge, and it should continue to do so with an increase in speed. Based on ASCAT data, the winds of Tropical Depression Two are at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h), and the pressure is at 1012 mbar (hPa; 29.89 inHg). The official NHC forecast does not take it to tropical storm intensity, and quite frankly, I don't want it to. Dylan, the 2011 AHS was full of the Hangover Effect. Dennis was an epic July major hurricane which trashed Cuba and Florida, but Don fell flat on his face. Emily was the strongest July TC on record and caused severe damage in Mexico and the Caribbean, but her 2011 successor slammed into Hispaniola and died. Katrina, as we all know, was the costliest Atlantic TC on record, but Katia had very little tropical effects. Rita was the strongest GOM TC ever and added on to Katrina's damage plus cause havoc in Texas, but Rina was a meh storm. Stan was a deadly nightmare for Central America and Mexico, but Sean just looped in the middle of the Atlantic. Any other examples? AndrewTalk To Me 00:34, July 22, 2014 (UTC) :::::I wouldn't quite call Katrina -> Katia or Rita -> Rina examples of the Hangover Effect. While Katia and Rina both fell far short of their predecessors, they were still both major hurricanes. Felix -> Fernand could be another example, but that might not quite be fair to Fernand since it did kill 14 people. Gustav '90 -> Gustav '96, Luis '95 -> Lorenzo '01, Cesar '96 -> Cristobal '02, Edouard '96 -> Edouard '02, and Michelle '01 -> Melissa '07 are better examples. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:45, July 22, 2014 (UTC) ::::::I know of another type of Hangover Effect. It's when the storm that follows an overachieving storm fails epically, although it's a different type than you mentioned (it happens in the same year as opposed to completely different years with the same naming list). Examples include: Lee after Katrina (2005), Joyce after Isaac (2012), Tony after Sandy (also 2012), Jose after Irene (2011), Josephine after Ike (2008), Erin after Dean (2007), Gabrielle after Felix (also 2007), Fiona and Gaston after Danielle and Earl (2010), Josephine after Isidore (2002), Jerry after Iris (2001), Hermine after Georges (1998), Fabian after Erika (1997), Gustav after Fran (1996), Pablo after Opal (1995), and many more that I probably didn't mention. This depression, if it becomes Bertha, will follow a big east coast hurricane (Arthur), resulting in another example of my version of Hangover Effect. Anyways, Advisory 2 keeps the depression at 35 mph/1012 mbar. That is a very high pressure.--Steve820 03:18, July 22, 2014 (UTC) Eh, I guess so Allan, but I'd rather see a decent fish storm instead of a weak name-stealer that does nothing but...well, exist. This might not even become Bertha, the latest NHC forecast doesn't take it past TD intensity as it heads westward towards the Antillies. Another example of a successor not living up to his predecessor would be Andrew '86 after Allen '80 (though Andrew '92 certainly did a lot). Ryan1000 03:21, July 22, 2014 (UTC) :That's actually very good thinking Steve, I wasn't thinking of that kind of scenario, though I personally wouldn't consider Dean/Erin to be a good example because of the severe flooding Erin brought to Texas. Ryan, I assume you're discounting the deadly flooding caused by Andrew '86's precursor? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:57, July 22, 2014 (UTC) ::Very little change in appearance has occurred overnight, and small areas of convection remain in the western and southwestern quadrants. The intensity remains the same based on TAFB estimates of 2.0. Tropical Depression Two should continue moving westwards under the influence of a strong deep-layer ridge into increasing dry air and wind shear levels, which should prompt dissipation within 48 to 72 hours. It does not look like the depression will be able to develop any more. AndrewTalk To Me 11:25, July 22, 2014 (UTC) :::Yeah, this depression is done. Still 35 mph/1012 mbar as of advisory 4. Luckily it didn't become named or it would've been one of the biggest name wastes! But still, there's a chance I spoke too soon and it could be a named storm on one of the next advisories, but I don't think that'll happen.--Steve820 17:58, July 22, 2014 (UTC) :::::Yeah Dylan I only counted what Andrew '86 did when it was a tropical cyclone, which wasn't much. TD 2 still isn't named, and it probably won't be at this point. Meanwhile, in WPac, Matmo has hit Taiwan now, hopefully it doesn't pull a Morakot and drown them...Ryan1000 20:49, July 22, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Two Bertha will have to wait later.--Isaac829 16:38, July 23, 2014 (UTC) :Bye, TD Two! Luckily it didn't become Bertha. Bertha will have to come later.--Steve820 16:48, July 23, 2014 (UTC) ::The remnants of TD Two are now 140 mi east of the Lesser Antilles. With no signs of a closed circulation and unfavorable conditions as it moves westwards at 25 mph, I highly doubt any redevelopment in the Atlantic. Nevertheless, gusty winds can be expected in the Lesser Antilles, and a near 0% chance of regeneration is possible during the next two and five days. AndrewTalk To Me 02:16, July 24, 2014 (UTC) ::It dropped off the TWO--Steve820 17:12, July 24, 2014 (UTC) :::Hangover Effect avoided for now. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:12, July 26, 2014 (UTC) ::::Completely died to the south of Dominican Republic. Nothing's left Supportstorm (talk) 07:00, July 27, 2014 (UTC) :::::Regenerated into TS Iselle in the EPAC. AndrewTalk To Me 02:33, August 1, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Now MH Iselle. AndrewTalk To Me 00:35, August 4, 2014 (UTC) AoI:Tropical Wave (July 19) AoI:Tropical Wave (July 19) This wave just emerged off of Western Africa. It has an elongated vortex pattern associated with it, but no rotation of any type can be identified on SAT imagery. See the July 9 AOI section for more information. AndrewTalk To Me 12:13, July 20, 2014 (UTC) :Closely tailing Two. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 04:07, July 23, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Tropical Wave (July 28) AOI: Over Ivory Coast This is the second of a train of four waves. Convective imagery indicates it is moderately strong with some mid-level rotation. See the "Emerging from Africa" AOI for more information. AndrewTalk To Me 02:32, July 24, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Tropical Wave (July 28) If this is the correct wave, it has just emerged off of Africa yesterday and is currently located near Cape Verde. I believe we might see some gradual development in the long run. --Steve820 16:45, July 29, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Over Nigeria AOI: Over Nigeria This is the third of a train of four waves. See the "Emerging from Africa" AOI for more information. AndrewTalk To Me 02:32, July 24, 2014 (UTC) AOI: Over Sudan AOI: Over Sudan This is the caboose of a train of four waves. It is a very strong system, and low to mid-level rotation is evident. We might see our third tropical cyclone from this. See the "Emerging from Africa" AOI for more information. AndrewTalk To Me 02:32, July 24, 2014 (UTC) :Isn't this a bit...early?--Isaac829 04:09, July 26, 2014 (UTC) ::I don't know! What do you think? :P AndrewTalk To Me 17:20, July 26, 2014 (UTC) :::I know, it's a bit too early for this :P --Steve820 22:28, July 26, 2014 (UTC)